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Intel - Intelligence
Indications & Warnings

"In God we trust.
All others we monitor."
 

Economics | Radio| Regions| Television | Weapons | 

  
    
The Terrorism Early Warning Group deciphers indications and warning elements and links them to operational decisions required by decisions makers to prevent, prepare or respond to a terrorist attack.

 
Indicators: Defined
  • An event (or lack of an event) that presents a significant clue about the present and suggests an eventual end state of a series of events
  • Signals progression toward an attack
  • Intent linked to character and capability of organization
  • Includes attacks, when responsible organization retains will and capability

 
Warning Paradox
  • Warning Paradox: Presence and Absence of Data Cause for Concern
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Indications & Warnings Matrix

 
Observer Examples
  • Media
  • Individual
  • Blue - Red Team
  • Intelligence LE
  • Reliability
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Indicates Examples
  • Intent
  • Method
  • Target
  • Participants
  • Imminence
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Threats
  • Few/Weak Signals
  • Capabilities Limited
  • Operations Undertaken on Finest of Margins
  • Directed at Our Weaknesses, Not Strengths
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Anomalies
  • Evidence of Deception
  • Deception Based on Appearing Normal - Blending In
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Internal Challenges
  • Expectation of specific/accurate warning on part of policymakers
  • Debate turns on esoteric issues, often technical in nature
  • Rationality Bias
  • Lack of Cultural Awareness
  • Need net assessment
  • Asymmetric attacks directed at weaknesses, not strengths
  • Does I&W inherently involve policy assessment?
  • Exquisite problem of victory