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Intel - Intelligence
Analytic Methods
Hypothesis Testing

"In God we trust.
All others we monitor."

• Consistent evidence is, of course, vital in the presentation of one's analytic findings. One could not sensibly champion a particular hypothesis solely on the ground that there is less inconsistent evidence for it than for the alternatives. Indeed, it is the search for consistent evidence - the reasons favoring something - that usually drives our analysis.

• Will Russia's free-market economy evolve and prosper or lead to societal chaos?
• Will the cost of city services grow in the next five years?

• Generate Hypothesis
• Construct a Matrix
• List "significant" evidence down the left-hand margin, including "absent" evidence
• Working across the matrix, test the evidence for consistency with each hypothesis, one item of evidence at a time
• Refine the Matrix
  a) Add or reword the hypothesis
  b) Add "significant" evidence relevant to any new or reworded hypothesis and test it against all hypotheses
  c) Delete, but keep a record of, evidence that is consistent with all of the hypotheses. It has no diagnostic value.

• Working downward, evaluate each hypothesis
• Rank the remaining hypotheses by the weakness of inconsistent evidence. The hypothesis with the weakest inconsistent evidence is the most likely
• Perform a sanity check