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Intel - 
Prediction
National Intelligence Estimates
 

"In God we trust.
All others we monitor."

 

Economics | Radio| Regions| Television | Weapons

 
In 1949 Sherman Kent argued that intelligence consists of three “substantive” elements: first, descriptive background; second, reportorial current information and threats, the “most important complicated element of strategic intelligence”; and third, the “substantive-evaluative” analytical process of evaluation and “extrapolation.”

 
1903 - 1986

Estimates  

Key Questions  
  • What are Iran’s intentions toward developing nuclear weapons?
  • What domestic factors affect Iran’s decision-making on whether to develop nuclear weapons?
  • What external factors affect Iran’s decision-making on whether to develop nuclear weapons?
  • What is the range of potential Iranian actions concerning the development of nuclear weapons, and the decisive factors that would lead Iran to choose one course of action over another?
  • What is Iran’s current and projected capability to develop nuclear weapons?
  • What are our key assumptions, and Iran’s key chokepoints/vulnerabilities?

Sections of the National Intelligence Estimate  
  • Post Mortems
  • Validity Studies
  • Numbering System
  • Dissemination within US Government
  • Consultants
  • Epilogues

Statements  
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Summaries - Declassified  
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Wiki  
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Words of Estimative Probability  
  • 100% — CERTAINTY
  • THE GENERAL AREA OF POSSIBILITY
  • 93% ± 6% ---- Almost certain
  • 75% ± 12% --- Probable
  • 50% ± 10% --- Chances about even
  • 30% ± 10% --- Probably not
  • 7% ± 5% ----- Almost certainly not
  • 0% — IMPOSSIBILITY
  •