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Intel - 
Prediction
National Intelligence Estimates 

"In God we trust.
All others we monitor."

 
1903 - 1986

• CIA National Intelligence Estimate for Israel
• Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015

• National Intelligence Estimate: The Global Infectious Disease Threat and Its Implications for the United States
• Prospects for the Worldwide Development of Ballistic Missile Threats to the Continental United States

• What are Iran’s intentions toward developing nuclear weapons?
• What domestic factors affect Iran’s decision-making on whether to develop nuclear weapons?
• What external factors affect Iran’s decision-making on whether to develop nuclear weapons?

• What is the range of potential Iranian actions concerning the development of nuclear weapons, and the decisive factors that would lead Iran to choose one course of action over another?
• What is Iran’s current and projected capability to develop nuclear weapons?
• What are our key assumptions, and Iran’s key chokepoints/vulnerabilities?

• Terms of Reference
• Draft
• Coordination of Draft with the Reps
• Production of NIEs Under Conditions of Urgency
• Final Clearance of NIEs at the US Communications Intelligence Board
• Dissent: Final and Formal

• Post Mortems
• Validity Studies
• Numbering System
• Dissemination within US Government
• Consultants
• Epilogues

• Statement by Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet on the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction

• Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015

• Wiki - National Intelligence Estimate
• Wiki - Sherman Kent

• 100% — CERTAINTY
• THE GENERAL AREA OF POSSIBILITY
• 93% ± 6% ---- Almost certain
• 75% ± 12% --- Probable
• 50% ± 10% --- Chances about even
• 30% ± 10% --- Probably not
• 7% ± 5% ----- Almost certainly not
• 0% — IMPOSSIBILITY