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Intel - 
Predictions
Methods 

"In God we trust.
All others we monitor."

• PDF "An Illustrated Guide to the Analytic Hierarchy Process"
• PPT "The Art of the Trade Study" - full
• PPT "The Art of the Trade Study" - shortened
• Steps

• Wiki

• ACH Windows Software
• ACH Java Webstart Software
• ACH Java Executable Jar Software (cross-platform)
• Extending Heuer's Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method
• Palo Alto Research Center's Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) page

• Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
• XLS for Purchasing Decisions using Competing Hypothesis
• Steps
• Wiki

• Who or what was the source?
• What was the source's access?
• What is the source's reliability?
• Is the information plausible?
• What allegiances does the source subscribe to, that may color his/her reports?

• To minimize the risk of overgeneralization, CRIN should be restricted to individual slugs, and the associated keywords/tags/entities they contain. Otherwise there is a substantial risk of a genuine expert in a given area appearing to be a fabricator if they are prolific in a domain for which they are not qualified. 

• Establish a moderator
• Assign panel members, and account for their availability to participate
• Compose series of questions for distribution to panel members
• Think through how many rounds of questionnaires might be needed
• Write follow-up questions to the questionnaire, BEFORE sending the first round questionnaire to panel members

• Distribute questionnaire to panel members
• Tabulate responses to questionnaire
• Review the follow-up questions and perhaps edit or compose new questions for the follow-up round.
• Distribute follow-up questions to panel members
• Wiki

• 1. Determine the Predictive Issue.
  2. Specify the Actors Bearing on the Problem.
  3. Conduct in-depth study of perceptions and intentions of each actor.
  4. Specify courses of action for each actor.
  5. Determine the major scenarios.
  6. Calculate the number of alternate futures.
  7. Do pairwise comparison of alternate futures.

• 8. Rank order the alternate futures.
  9. Analyze consequences of alternate futures.
  10. Determine focal events for alternate futures.
  11. Develop indicators for each focal event.
  12. Assess the potential for transposition between alternate futures.
• Primary Source
• Wiki

• There is no one Monte Carlo method; instead, the term describes a large and widely-used class of approaches. However, these approaches tend to follow a particular pattern:
• 1. Define a domain of possible inputs.
• 2. Generate inputs randomly from the domain, and perform a deterministic computation on them.
• 3. Aggregate the results of the individual computations into the final result.

• Wiki

• Primary Source

• Wiki

• Primary Source

• Wiki

• Primary Source

• Wiki